California Has A Plan To Install 6 Million Heat Pumps By 2030

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News!

Last Updated on: 17th March 2025, 11:34 pm

Last week, the California Heat Pump Partnership announced the nation’s first statewide blueprint to achieve the state’s ambitious goals for deploying heat pumps, a critical tech for decarbonizing buildings and improving public health. The plan draws on recommendations from the public-private partnership’s members, which include government agencies, heat pump manufacturers, retailers, utilities, and other stakeholders. “We hope it serves as a national model,” said Terra Weeks, director of the partnership.

In 2022, California Governor Gavin Newsom set a goal for his state, which is the world’s fifth largest economy, to deploy 6 million heat pump units by 2030. That includes heat pumps for building heating and air conditioning needs as well as for heating hot water. An estimated 1.9 million heat pumps have been installed so far. But according to the blueprint report, the state is not on track to hit that 2030 benchmark. Even with current policies and incentives, California would fall 2 million heat pumps short, the report says.

Heat pump units are outselling gas furnaces nationally, but of the roughly 1 million units of HVAC equipment sold annually in California, just one in five are heat pumps. Of about 800,000 water heaters sold each year, only 3% to 5% are heat pump models. The state is one of nine committed to making heat pumps at least 65% of residential HVAC sales by 2030. Beyond the 2030 target, Canary Media says the Golden State ultimately needs to deploy an estimated 23 million heat pumps to decarbonize its residential and commercial sectors by 2045, which is when California aims to be carbon neutral.

California Heat Pump Partnership

Heat pumps face considerable challenges to mass adoption in the state. Many Californians aren’t aware of the appliance’s benefits, according to the report. Heat pumps are typically more expensive up front than gas furnaces and can cost more to run in states like California where electricity prices are high relative to those of gas. Plus, many contractors aren’t prioritizing heat pumps, citing a lack of market confidence, the report notes.

The blueprint lays out a raft of solutions to make heat pumps more desirable and affordable. Building customer demand and contractor support is key to making them ​“the easy and obvious choice,” as the report puts it. To create buzz for the appliances, the partnership is launching a ​“heat pump week” with interactive experiences next spring. The group will also start a broader marketing campaign this fall, which will include spotlighting contractors who already install heat pumps.

To reduce upfront costs, the coalition supports expanding heat pump financing tools, like the low-interest loans from the State Treasurer’s Office GoGreen Home program. Weeks also underscored the need for incentives that are easy for contractors and customers to access, such as instant, ​“point-of-sale” rebates for heat pumps. Applying lessons from existing incentive initiatives like TECH Clean California, the partnership recommends that program architects get input from contractors and manufacturers on how to design incentives and ensure funds follow predictable timelines, rather than abruptly run out.

“The current start-and-stop dynamics that we’re seeing with many incentive programs today … can deter both customers and contractors from opting for heat pumps,” Terra Weeks said. ​“There’s really broad consensus from our members that there is a distinct need to just make sure that those incentives don’t disappear.” The group also endorses streamlining the permitting process for heat pump installations, a measure currently before the state legislature.

The blueprint points out that focusing on particular markets could help supercharge heat pump adoption. Residents in the San Francisco Bay Area, for example, must start replacing their broken gas-fueled furnaces and water heaters with zero-emissions electric equipment starting in 2027 to comply with local air quality rules. Consumers in hotter areas such as inland California will also save more on cooling costs than other customers when they replace older, less efficient central ACs with heat pumps, making them potentially prime early adopters. If heat pumps went from their current 23 percent of market share for AC replacements to 80 percent, installations would add up to roughly 1.7 million additional units over six years, the report claims.

A primary component of the blueprint is a workforce advisory council of installers, trade associations, workforce educators, and other stakeholders who can help guide the partnership’s marketing efforts and make policy recommendations. “We need to be designing regulations and programs with contractors so that they work for contractors,” Weeks said. ​“And if we make it easy and profitable for contractors, we win.”

The sweeping tactics laid out in the report will require substantial funding, potentially in the billions of dollars. But exactly how much will be up for debate. Weeks said funds could come from a variety of sources, including cap-and-trade revenues, utility ratepayer programs, and state tax dollars. The report recommends minimizing the use of ratepayer funding; California is looking to cut costs to utility customers as the state’s electricity bills skyrocket. That seems counterintuitive to some since California has a tremendous amount of grid-scale and rooftop solar. If solar is so cheap, why it the cost of electricity so high?

The answer is that California’s utility companies are spending billions upon billions of dollars to reduce the risk of wildfires sparked by electrical transmission lines. Part of that process involves burying many of those lines underground, a process that consumes money by the cubic yard. Another aspect is insurance. No corporation can do business without insurance, but the number of wildfires in recent years attributable to faulty transmission lines means the utility companies are paying sky high insurance premiums.

Heat Pumps In Maine

The state of Maine has also embarked on a major campaign to get its citizens to adopt heat pumps, a process made more difficult by the perception that heat pumps don’t work well in winter. Maine has plenty of winter. In fact, a common  refrain from old-time residents is that the state has 9 months of winter and 3 months of damn poor sledding.

But the state worked with heat pump manufacturers to improve the performance of the equipment when it was cold outside. Then it hired people to go out into the state’s rural communities and spread the good news about heat pumps. It worked. The program has resulted in a dramatic shift away from conventional oil furnaces and propane boilers, which are far more expensive to operate than heat pumps. The state is also training a cadre of heat pump installers and service technicians to support the transition.

Heat pumps are similar to electric cars in many respects. They are new technology and very few people really understand how they work. The name itself is baffling to many as the concept of pumping heat is difficult to grasp. From a marketing perspective, they could benefit from a slick new name like a heating and cooling device or a multi-phase temperature controller. Twofer would be good, too! They also often cost more to buy and install than conventional heating equipment, although the cooling aspect is a nice bonus. Ultimately, it will come down to the most powerful sales tool ever invented — word of mouth. Policy and financial incentives will help as well.

People like getting two-for-one deals. Combine that with positive word of mouth and you have the start of a revolution. Just in time, too.