ARK Invest Raises Bitcoin Bull Case Target to $2.4M by 2030 on Institutional Demand

Asset management firm ARK Invest has significantly increased its bullish outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), projecting a potential price of $2.4 million by the end of 2030.

The revised target, up from a previous forecast of $1.5 million, reflects growing institutional adoption and Bitcoin’s evolving role as “digital gold,” according to ARK’s latest report released on April 24.

In addition to its optimistic bull case, ARK also raised its bear case target to $500,000 and its base case to $1.2 million. These figures mark an increase from the firm’s earlier projections of $300,000 and $710,000, respectively.

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ARK Analyst Says Bitcoin Forecasts Driven by Market Potential and Fixed Supply

David Puell, a research analyst at ARK, explained that the updated forecasts are based on Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM), expected market penetration rates, and its fixed supply schedule.

“Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” Puell noted, estimating Bitcoin could capture 6.5% of the $200 trillion global financial market—excluding gold—in a best-case scenario.

A key driver behind ARK’s projection is Bitcoin’s rising acceptance as a digital counterpart to gold. Puell suggested that Bitcoin could absorb up to 60% of gold’s $18 trillion market cap by 2030.

Additionally, Bitcoin’s role as a “safe haven” asset in emerging markets, protecting against inflation and currency devaluation, accounts for 13.5% of the bull case estimate.

BREAKING NEWS:

ARK Invest updates their 2030 Bitcoin price predictions:

Bull Case: $2.4 million
Base Case: $1.2 million
Bear Case: $500k pic.twitter.com/kjeowl3CU9

— Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDailyio) April 24, 2025

Other factors influencing ARK’s forecast include nation-state adoption, corporate treasury strategies, and the expansion of Bitcoin-based financial services.

If Bitcoin reaches ARK’s $2.4 million target, its market capitalization would soar to $49.2 trillion, assuming a circulating supply of 20.5 million BTC by 2030.

This valuation would surpass the combined GDP of the United States and China and position Bitcoin to overtake gold as the world’s largest asset—more than doubling gold’s current $22.5 trillion market cap.

Even under ARK’s conservative scenarios, Bitcoin would require a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32% to 53%, an impressive feat for an asset already valued in the trillions.

The report comes as Bitcoin rebounds from its 2025 low of $75,160 to trade near $94,000, buoyed by favorable market conditions and the Trump administration’s establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

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Bitcoin Becomes 5th Largest Asset

On April 23, Bitcoin overtook Alphabet to become the world’s fifth most valuable asset, reaching a market cap of $1.87 trillion. The milestone came amid Bitcoin’s growing decoupling from U.S. tech stocks, with BTC gaining 15% in April, outperforming the Nasdaq 100.

– Tech futures down
– Dollar down
– Gold new ATH
– Bitcoin breaking out/decoupling

Realize where we are. pic.twitter.com/XqZRlEHj39

— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) April 21, 2025

Investor confidence has been bolstered by President Trump’s pro-Bitcoin policies, including the establishment of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) and easing concerns over Federal Reserve independence and China tariffs.

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