Climate Weirdness Hits The Colorado Plateau

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According to my grandfather, “Only fools and newcomers try to predict the weather around here.” in the American Southwest. And, should anybody try to predict the weather, he’ll remind us that we aren’t newcomers, leaving only one other option. But, I’ve learned over time that his advice largely applies to short-term predictions.

While the weather can turn fast on any given day, the kind of weather you can expect in any given month has always been pretty stable. What little winter we get only comes between November and about February. The weather quickly warms up almost to summer temperatures in the spring, but we can expect lots and lots of wind and dust. Summer gets hot early, often starting in early May, but summer rains don’t arrive until around the Fourth of July. Once the rains stop in August or September, we get a short fall in October before falling back into winter temperatures.

What’s great about this largely predictable cycle is that you can count on it for planning outdoor recreation, especially camping. On the desert floor, snow and rain are pretty rare in the winter and temperatures are pretty good for that most weeks. Going into the foothills of the mountain ranges or for planning daytime activities in the desert, spring and fall are pretty reliable as long as you don’t go out on a windy day. The best times to avoid going out are on late summer afternoons when the monsoon fairly predictably arrives.

Even huge events like Moab’s Easter Jeep Safari, RV shows in Quartzsite, Arizona, and just about anything planned outdoors in Phoenix are planned around this weather pattern.

But, some recent fun I got to have in the Four Corners area made it pretty clear that this predictable annual cycle is becoming less and less dependable.

Freezing Weather and Snow Around Moab—In Late April?

Just a couple of paragraphs up, I mention the Easter Jeep Safari. Why? Because I recently went to Moab to attend a Jeep media event. It was also a good opportunity for some bike reviews (coming soon) and to test some off-grid power (something I’ve started publishing about). Again, the reliably good weather during March and April tends to be great for planning outdoor events.

But, this time, things changed toward the end of my time camping near Moab. Crazy winds blew through the area, rocking and shaking my camper. Then, intense rains like you’d see in monsoon season came roaring through. Finally, intense cold swept through and made it a lot more difficult than normal to stay warm. The next day, when I had planned to leave, we decided we’d stop by and spend a few more hours in Canyonlands National Park to see some sights we didn’t get to a few days earlier.

That’s when something truly strange happened.

Instead of warming back up, snow started to spill over the canyons and down toward the Colorado River. While I know how to drive in snow, have four wheel drive, and have reasonably good tires, I was also towing a travel trailer. I knew we needed to go ahead and get out of the higher elevations. As we left, the snow really started to stick and pile up.

Other places that tend to be nice and comfortable near Moab in later spring were worse. Monticello was freezing and had snow on the ground. To get to someplace nicer for camping, we had to drop all the way to Bluff, Utah and get an RV park to keep the heaters on all night.

But, the next day we crossed the San Juan and climbed back into higher elevations. Monument Valley didn’t have any snow that stuck, but signs of wintery weather started to show up again around Kayenta.

As we went to Chinle and Canyon de Chelly, we found more of the white stuff in the higher elevations, which made for some very beautiful views around Spider Rock.

Later, even as we drove further south into lands that are usually a dry and warm desert this time of year, there was plenty of mud and snow everywhere but the highway. It was only closer to Gallup that the snow started to thin out and go away, but cold air went almost to El Paso.

Not Unheard Of, But Definitely Not Normal

I know the people who don’t believe in anthropogenic climate change will quickly think about freak late snow storms that happen. And yes, these sorts of events have happened in the past. Moab proper (the city itself) has received snow in the past as late as April 24th.

But, what makes this April’s weather so unusual is that it’s part of a larger pattern. Earlier in the month, most of the Southwest got a freeze warning that required many people who had planted gardens in late March to cover plants. This was followed by the Eastern US getting a notable round of severe storms and tornadoes. Next, the Southwest got a round of record heat, with Phoenix breaking 100 degrees a lot earlier than usual. Then, temperatures stabilized for a few days, followed by this crazy late round of snow.

In other words, this is more than just a late snow. It’s a wild April that had two cold snaps sandwiching a record heatwave!

The Stability We Built A Civilization On

I’m not about to argue that wild April weather is going to, by itself, end human civilization. Hell, it didn’t even end my camping trip. I had to pile on some extra blankets for one night, while most people just turned up the heat. Even people sleeping in tents not far from my campsite just had to zip up their sleeping bags and maybe throw an extra blanket on top.

But, this is a bad sign for the future. I’m no farmer, but the first cold snap wiped out several plants in my garden that I didn’t cover as well as the others (April freezes are very unusual in the region around El Paso). I would imagine that farmers who grow a lot more food than I do would struggle as freak freeze events happen later and later in the year.

On a deeper level, this relatively stable and predictable climate is what enabled our civilization to develop and grow. The more we mess with things and lose predictability, the harder it’s going to be for civilization to be successful going forward.

All images by Jennifer Sensiba.