Musk Wants To Double Tesla Production In US While Analysts Predict Lower Numbers

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According to a post by Elon Musk on the anti-social media site he owns, and which boosts his posts egregiously due to his gigantic ego, Tesla is committed to doubling its vehicle production in the US within two years. The announcement comes in the wake of weak sales figures recently. Tesla has always shunned advertising, preferring to leverage the aura of its leader to generate sales. But now that the great man has taken a sledgehammer to his own image, his allure is quite a bit less than it once was. There are all sorts of theories about why Tesla sales have slumped lately — people are waiting for the refreshed Model Y to become available some say — but the truth is other EV makers are seeing sales growth while Tesla is experiencing a sales slowdown and the most likely factor is that people have discovered what a jumped up jackass Elon is and simply want nothing to do with the products he stands for.

Musk now says he wants the commitment to double vehicle production in the US within two years to be seen as “support of the policies of President Donald Trump and [a demonstration of] confidence in the future of the United States.” He did not elaborate, but at a time when many Tesla owners are putting bumper stickers on their cars saying “I bought this before I knew Musk was crazy,” it seems unlikely sucking up even more to the Moron of Mar-A-Loco will convince many people to purchase a Tesla.

Tesla is currently struggling with weakening sales figures in markets around the world, especially in Europe and China. With the start of deliveries and the production ramp-up of the refreshed Model 3 and Model Y, in a few months time it will be possible to better assess the actual demand for those cars. Until then, the reason for the sales decline is mostly just speculation. Nevertheless, Musk now wants to strengthen the US as a production country. Although the absolute production figures from the plants in California and Texas are not known, the current production capacities are. In the latest annual report, Tesla listed an annual capacity for California of 100,000 premium cars — Model S and Model X — and over 550,000 volume vehicles — Model 3 and Model Y. In Texas, 250,000 Model Ys and 125,000 Cybertrucks could be built annually. Meanwhile, pilot production of the Tesla Semi is said to be underway at the Nevada plant for the fifth consecutive year. The company does not provide production figures for the electric Semi.

It is not certain, but it is likely that Musk’s announcement will have consequences for plants operated or planned elsewhere, Electrive notes. For example, it seems illogical for Tesla to double production in the US and yet build a factory in Mexico. As is often the case with Tesla, it remains to be seen to what extent Musk’s announcement will actually be reflected in business operations, which is a polite way of saying anything that comes out of his mouth is likely to be Grade A horse puckey and can be safely ignored. The only thing that is certain is that Musk is not only concerned about his company, but also about his political image as an advisor to the woefully inadequate president now ensconced in the Offal Office, where he is reduced to babysitting Elon’s son, X, because how cute is it to have a child who is named after the universal symbol for an unknown quantity?

Analysts Predict Lower Tesla Production

Auto industry analysts are a rare breed. They produce little of lasting value other than speculation. (Some would say the same about people who write for online publications.) UBS Group analyst Joseph Spak recently lowered his projection for Tesla production in 2025 to 1.7 million, which contributed to Tesla shares having their worst day since September of 2020. Now a second analyst covering Tesla is bracing for vehicle sales to drop this year, rather than rebound from the first annual decline in more than a decade.

Chris McNally at Evercore ISI cut his full year estimate for Tesla vehicle deliveries to 1.75 million, from 1.88 million, in a report published March 12, 2025. McNally said the company is seeing brand and volume “destruction” around the globe. He also wrote that investors increasingly doubt Tesla will soon expand its lineup, and instead suspect the new, more affordable vehicles vaguely teased for the first half of this year will only be a cheaper, de-contented variant of the Model Y. On Wednesday, he cut his share price target to $235 from $270, citing the risks to Tesla’s sales as well as to the company’s autonomous vehicle hopes. A website that crowd-sources data on how often Tesla owners have to intervene while using the driver assist system marketed as Full Self Driving has seen “little improvement,” he said, despite the latest version software update now being fully rolled out.

What should we make of Musk’s pronouncement that he wants to double production of Tesla vehicles in the United States? Some might say it represents a desire to pull back from the global fray and retrench the company’s interest behind a wall of tariffs and import restrictions that are favorable to it. A more cynical person might see it as an admission that Tesla cannot compete on the world stage with the flood of Chinese electric cars coming to Southeast Asia, Europe, Australia, South America, and Africa. As the US disengages from the rest of the world and retreats into a shell to suck its thumb, Musk can be said to be doing much the same thing.

Live by the sword; die by the sword is an old expression familiar to many. For more than a decade, Tesla was riding high, held aloft by the positive impression of its primary supporter. But now the air has gone out of Elon’s balloon, so it seems, which might make some observers recall the trajectory of the career of another famous person who suffered a similar fall from grace, none other than rapper MC Hammer. His implosion happened so rapidly that it served as an object lesson in the fleeting nature of fame. The rap impresario had the good grace to make fun of how fast his career disintegrated. Is the incredible Mister Musk about to have a similar flameout at high altitude?