Renewable Energy Resources Will Be Stressed By A Hotter Climate

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Last Updated on: 26th March 2025, 10:59 am

The United Nations this week has issued a report that warns hotter average temperatures will put stress on the renewable energy resources we rely on to help us manage hotter average temperatures. It’s a vicious circle that needs to be understood in order to make smart, informed decisions about how we generate electricity in the future. Because renewable energy sources depend on weather conditions, climate change is increasingly dictating — and jeopardizing — renewable energy production, the UN report suggests. In 2023, average global temperatures reached 1.45° C above pre-industrial levels and the transition from La Niña to El Niño altered rainfall, wind patterns, and solar radiation.

When we think of renewable energy, we often overlook hydro power, but it is one of the largest sources of clean energy worldwide. Hamid Bastani, a climate and energy expert with the World Meteorological Organization told UN News, “In Sudan and Namibia, hydro power output dropped by more than 50 percent due to unusually low rainfall.” In 2023, rainfall in Namibia, home to nearly 50 million people, was half  the normal amount. “This is a country where hydro power makes up around 60 per cent of the electricity mix. These reductions could have significant implications,” Bastani said.

Wind energy is also showing signs of stress under changing climate conditions. China, which accounts for 40% of global onshore wind capacity, saw only a modest 4 to 8% increase in output in 2023 as wind anomalies disrupted generation. In India, production declined amid weaker monsoon winds, while some regions in Africa experienced even sharper losses, with wind output falling by as much as 20 to 30%.

South America experienced the opposite. Clearer than normal skies boosted solar panel performance, particularly in countries like Brazil, Colombia, and Bolivia. As a result, the region saw a 4 to 6% increase in solar generation — a climate driven bump that led to about three TWh of additional electricity. That’s enough to power more than two million homes for a year in that region. “This is a good example of how climate variability can sometimes create opportunity,” said Roberta Boscolo, the head of the WMO New York office. “In Europe, too, we are seeing more days with high solar radiation, meaning solar power is becoming more efficient over time.”

Boscolo pointed out that dams, solar farms, and wind turbines are all designed based on past climate patterns, making them susceptible to the changing climate in the future. Hydro power depends on predictable seasonal flows fed by snow melt or glacial runoff. “There will be a short term boost in hydro power as glaciers melt,” but once those glaciers are gone, so is the water. And that is irreversible — at least on human timescales.”

A recent report from the UN Environment Program warned that rising sea levels and stronger storms pose growing risks to energy production facilities, including solar farms located near coastlines. Wildfires can cause downed power lines and black out entire regions, while extreme heat can reduce the efficiency of solar panels just as demand for electricity to power cooling equipment peaks. Nuclear power plants are also at risk in the changing climate. “We have seen nuclear power plants that could not operate because of the lack of water… for cooling,” Boscolo said. As heatwaves become more frequent and river levels drop, some older nuclear facilities may no longer be viable in their current locations. “When we design, when we build, when we project power generation infrastructure, we really need to think about what the climate of the future will be, not what was the climate of the past,” she said.

Renewable Energy & AI

Our planet is heading towards a future in which electricity, especially from renewable sources, will be vital, Boscolo said. “Our transport is going to be electric; our cooking is going to be electric; our heating is going to be electric. So, if we do not have a reliable electricity system, everything is going to collapse. We will need to have this climate intelligence when we think about how to change our energy systems and the reliability and the resilience of our energy system in the future.”

Both Boscolo and Bastani emphasized a need to embrace what they call climate intelligence, meaning the integration of climate forecasts, data, and science into every level of energy planning. “In the past, energy planners worked with historical averages. But the past is no longer a reliable guide. We need to know what the wind will be doing next season, what rainfall will look like next year, not just what it looked like a decade ago,” Bastani explained.

Hydro power generation increased nearly 80% in Chile in November, 2023 because of unusually high rainfall. The experts say advanced seasonal forecasting could help dam operators better anticipate such events in the future and manage reservoirs to store water more effectively. Wind farm operators can also  forecasts to schedule maintenance during low-wind periods, which would minimize downtime. Grid operators could make better plans for energy spikes during heatwaves or droughts with the aid of better forecasting tools. “We now have forecasts that span from a few seconds ahead to several months. Each one has a specific application — from immediate grid balancing to long term investment decisions,” Bastani said.

Machine learning (AI) models trained on climate and energy data can now predict resource fluctuations with higher resolution and accuracy, which would help grid operators decide when to deploy battery storage or shift energy between regions while making the system more flexible and responsive. “These models can help operators better anticipate fluctuations in wind, rainfall, or solar radiation,” Bastani explained.

Recently in Costa Rica, WMO helped national energy authorities to develop and implement an AI-based model for short term wind speed forecasting. The tool is now integrated into the Costa Rican Electricity Institute’s internal energy forecasting platform. In Chile, a floating solar installation used AI to estimate evaporation rates on reservoirs. The results showed that floating solar panels can reduce water evaporation by up to 85% in summer.

The Global South

The promises and challenges of renewable energy planning are most evident in the Global South. Africa boasts some of the best solar potential on the planet, yet only two per cent of the world’s installed renewable capacity is found on the continent. “In many parts of the Global South, there just is not enough observational data to create accurate forecasts or make energy projects bankable. Investors need to see reliable long term projections. Without that, the risk is too high,” Boscolo said. “This is not just about climate mitigation,” she added. “It is a development opportunity. Renewable energy can bring electricity to communities, drive industrial growth, and create jobs if the systems are designed right.”

Another key action to guarantee clean energy in the near future is diversification. Relying too heavily on only one renewable source can expose countries to seasonal or long term shifts in climate, according to Bastani explains. In Europe, energy planners are becoming more concerned about something called “dunkelflaute” — a period of cloudy, windless weather in winter that undermines both solar power and wind generation. This phenomenon is associated with high pressure systems known as anticyclonic gloom. “A diversified mix that includes solar, wind, hydro, battery storage, and even low-carbon sources (like geothermal) is essential,” Mr. Bastani said. “Especially as extreme weather becomes more frequent.”

The volatility experienced in 2023 underscores the need for climate-smart planning and infrastructure that can withstand unpredictable shifts in weather patterns, the WMO says. For renewable energy to truly fulfill its promise, the world must invest not only in expanding capacity but also in building a system that is resilient, adaptable, and informed by the best available climate science.

Both WMO experts emphasized the importance of integrating climate intelligence into energy systems to ensure their reliability and resilience. By leveraging advanced forecasting and artificial intelligence, we can better anticipate and adapt to these changes, optimizing renewable energy production and safeguarding our future. The future of energy is not just about more wind turbines and solar panels. It is also about ensuring they can withstand the very forces they are meant to mitigate, the WMO report concludes.