Renewable Energy To Beat Gas Over The Next Three Years

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By the time the fossil-friendly Commander-in-Chief who occupies the White House leaves office in 2028, his friends in the fossil energy business may be wondering what they signed up for. Fossil fuels were already losing ground in the power generation industry during the first Trump administration. They are set to fall further behind as renewable energy dominates grid capacity additions over the next three years, according to the latest data compiled by FERC, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

Between The Lines Of FERC Renewable Energy Data

Before we get into the nitty-gritty of the data, let’s stop and consider that the FERC report in question only covers utility-scale capacity additions. That pretty much addresses the situation concerning  wind power, where the industry is dominated by utility-scale projects. However, the nation’s solar power profile is much more diverse.

Individual, small scale rooftop or ground-mounted solar arrays are not counted by FERC, but they collectively account for more than 33% of the overall solar capacity in the US. Now that utilities are catching up on utility-scale renewable energy, the proportion of small-scale solar capacity in the US energy profile will most likely shrink. However, the overall total will remain sizeable.

The US Energy Information Administration tracks small-scale solar, defined as a generating capacity of less than 1 megawatt. In 2023 EIA ran the numbers to forecast last year’s small-scale solar outlook, anticipating growth from 44 gigawatts as of June 2023 to 55 gigawatts by the end of 2024.

“By comparison, we expect utility-scale solar capacity to grow from 78 GW in June 2023 to 131 GW by the end of 2024,” EIA noted.

The Renewable Energy Revolution Is Alive And Well

All this is by way of saying that FERC data is a valuable, but somewhat incomplete, in terms of evaluating the state of the renewable energy transition in the US. Still, the utility-scale data alone paints an impressive picture for renewable energy.

For those of you handy with charts, the latest monthly FERC “Energy Infrastructure Update” is here. It contains a rundown of capacity additions in January, during the final weeks of the Biden administration and on to the end of the month.

Wind and solar accounted for more than 98% of utility scale capacity additions in January, which did not leave much wiggle room for anything else. Gas weighed in at just 60 megawatts in January. Oil fared even worse, at a measly 11 megawatts.

In contrast, solar racked up more than 2.9 gigawatts in January and wind accounted for a respectable 1.3 gigawatts.

The organization Sun Day Campaign has kindly issued a descriptive outline of the FERC report under the headline, “Solar and Wind Close Out Biden Era by Providing 98.4% of New U.S. Generating Capacity in January as FERC Forecasts Continued Growth.”

As described by SDC, the year-over-year capacity additions for solar are particularly impressive. “Solar accounted for 68.2% of all new generating capacity placed into service in January – more than double the solar capacity added a year earlier (1,176-MW),” the organization noted.

As may be expected considering the furious pace of solar development in Texas, red states can take much of the credit for the year-over-year increase. Despite all the energy red state lawmakers have been expending to stop renewable energy, it just keeps on coming. SDC notes that Florida, Indiana, and Texas all saw major solar capacity additions come online in January this year, headlined by a suite of 12 projects under the mantle of Florida Power & Light, each with a capacity of 74.5 megawatts.

“Solar plus wind is now almost a quarter of U.S. utility-scale generating capacity; all renewables combined are nearly a third,” SDC summarizes, including hydropower, biomass, and geothermal in the mix.

Trump Or Not, The Energy Transition Is Here To Stay

As for the next three years, FERC anticipates the likelihood of more than 89 gigawatts of utility scale solar from February of 2025 to January of 2028, with wind making a smaller contribution at 22.3 gigawatts. None of the other renewables come close, though hydropower leads the pack at 1.3 gigawatts, followed by geothermal at 92 megawatts, and biomass in negative territory.

The solar estimate, in particular, could be an undercount considering the surging popularity of the solar grazing movement, in which farmers and other landowners can lease our the same property for both solar power and livestock grazing.

Further underscoring the importance of the wind and solar industry to the pace of capacity additions is the dismal showing of conventional resources over the next three years. FERC anticipates nuclear racking up exactly zero new capacity additions, while both coal and oil contract, and gas grows by just 455 megawatts.

Why Does Everybody Want More Wind And Solar Energy?

Of course, President Trump excluded wind and solar from his whackadoodle “American energy dominance” plan, but he included all three forms of renewable energy with the lowest prospects for rapid and sustained growth in the coming years, those being biomass, hydropower, and geothermal.

Biomass stakeholders face a number of longstanding headwinds, including pushback from local communities that are leery of emissions from the facility and associated transportation systems, in addition to high costs. A big fight is currently brewing in Georgia, for example, over plans for constructing several new biomass power plants.

New hydropower projects face additional limitations. Aside from the community opposition factor, hydropower is severely constrained by circumstances of geography and water resources, as well as long lead times for licensing and construction. Still, there are some opportunities to keep adding new megawatts to the nation’s hydropower profile, including pumped storage hydropower, upgrading existing dams, and deploying new hydrokinetic technology.

Renewable Energy Has More Cards To Play

Over the long run, geothermal could turn out to be the wild card in the US renewable energy pack. The US Department of Energy has been promoting new, enhanced geothermal energy systems that deploy human-engineered underground reservoirs, instead of relying on naturally occurring rock formations. In terms of power generation that is a game changer. Currently, only a handful of goethermal power plants are in operation today, all located in parts of the western US where rock, heat, and water resources are optimal.

For the here and now, though, wind and solar are proven technologies with mature supply chains and a shorter construction time frame, which explains why developers, utilities, and energy consumer continue to prefer them regardless of the idiotic “drill, baby, drill” bluster coming from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

If the US is truly in an “energy emergency,” as declared by the dictator-adjacent Commander-in-Chief who occupies the White House, then wind and solar are the two no-brainers to support, along with new long duration energy storage technologies, virtual power plants, and other elements of modern 21st century electrical infrastructure.

If you have any thoughts about that, drop a note in the comment thread. Better yet, find your representatives in Congress and tell them what you think.

Photo: Renewable energy resources are kicking gas power plants to the curb in the US, with solar capacity additions leading the way (courtesy of US Department of Energy via CleanTechnica archive).